With iPod sales down for the last two years, predicting the death of iPod Classic is now an annual tradition.
随着 iPod 近两年来销量逐年下跌，预测 iPod 经典版（iPod Classic）何时终结成了每年人们都要谈论的话题。
Business Insider’s Dan Frommer is the latest journalist to question the iPod Classic’s future, ahead of Apple’s September 1 music event. The usual arguments apply — without Wi-Fi, apps or a touch screen, the classic iPod is looking pretty stale — but his prediction hinges on whether Apple will introduce a 128 GB iPod Touch this year. After all, the current iPod Classic’s hard drive holds 160 GB of media, and retiring it doesn’t make sense unless another device can take the high-capacity throne with flash storage.
Business Insider 的 Dan Frommer 是在苹果（Apple）9 月 1 日音乐活动之前最近一个对 iPod 经典版的未来作出猜测的记者。除了那些人尽皆知的理由——没有 Wi-Fi、应用程序和触摸屏，经典的 iPod 看上去已经过时了——他的预测还说苹果也许可能在今年发布一款 128 GB 的 iPod Touch。毕竟目前的 iPod 经典版的内存可以容纳 160GB 的媒体文件，除非有别的设备的闪存容量能够达到这一水准，否则 iPod 经典版不可能就此退出江湖。
I’m with Frommer’s logic all the way, but I doubt that 128 GB flash drives will even be ready in time for the next iPod Touch.
我完全赞成 Frommer 的逻辑，但我怀疑下一代 iPod Touch 可能难以做好升级到 128 GB 闪存的准备。
The 128 GB flash drive does exist. Toshiba, Apple’s frequent source for mobile device storage, created a 128 GB flash drive in June, with samples to be available in September. Full production begins later this fall, according to Electronista.
128 GB 的闪存已经问世了。苹果的移动设备储存单元的主要来源东芝（Toshiba）在 6 月发明了 128 GB 的闪存驱动器，预计 9 月发布样品。据 Electronista 的报道，今年秋季将开始正式生产。
That timeline pretty much rules out 128 GB drives for the next-generation iPod Touch. Apple’s tendency with new iPods is to start selling them on the day of its press events. Given that Toshiba’s 128 GB drives won’t even be available for testing until some time next month, they simply won’t be ready for Apple’s products unless development sped up significantly since June.
这一时间表很大程度上否认了下一代 iPod Touch 配备 128 GB 内存的可能性。苹果向来喜欢在它的发布会上开始销售新款 iPod。既然东芝的 128 GB 闪存无法在下个月完成测试，它们就根本不可能出现在苹果的产品中，除非开发进度从 6 月开始有了飞速提升。
Besides, the price for 128 GB at this point would be astronomical. At present, the 64 GB iPod Touch costs $399, compared to $250 for the iPod Classic. I’m guessing the price for 64 GB flash hasn’t dropped considerably since last year, because Apple doesn’t even offer that capacity in the iPhone 4. I just don’t see the iPod Touch making such a huge leap in storage.
不仅如此，目前的 128 GB 闪存的价格可谓天文数字。现在的 64 GB iPod Touch 售价 399 美元，相比之下 iPod 经典版仅售 250 美元。我猜 64 GB 闪存的价格从去年起就没有大幅下降过，因为苹果甚至都没有给 iPhone 4 配备这一容量的闪存。我完全不相信 iPod Touch 这次能够在储存空间上有多大的飞跃。
If Apple proves me wrong, I’ll be shocked. Otherwise, anyone want to start making bets for next year?
要是苹果用实际行动证明我错了，我可要跌破眼镜了。要不，有没有谁跟我赌明年苹果会不会发布 128 GB 的 Touch？
Update: Commenter Hamranhansenhansen points out that the iPod Touch uses two memory chips, as confirmed by iFixit’s teardown. That means Apple would only have to use two 64 GB chips. This still seems unlikely given that Toshiba’s 64 GB chip — using the same 32 nm process as its larger counterpart — won’t be ready until the fall either, and even less likely if you believe Apple won’t use larger chips than those found in the iPhone.
更新：评论者 Hamranhansenhansen 指出 iPod Touch 使用两块内存芯片，根据 iFixit 的拆解证明属实。这意味着苹果只要用两块 64 GB 的芯片就可以了。但这依然有点悬，因为东芝的 64 GB 芯片——使用和它的主要竞争对手相同的 32 纳米工艺——同样无法在秋季之前完成，更不用说苹果可能会用比 iPhone 里面的芯片尺寸更大的芯片了。
